NBA games

NY @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
105110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY25213029105
MIL21352628110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (MIL) / 9 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MIL
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 42 45 5 4
Quentin Grimes S 34 17 4 2
Julius Randle S 39 16 12 5
Immanuel Quickley 22 14 3 1
Josh Hart S 36 6 10 5
Isaiah Hartenstein 18 4 3 0
Donte DiVincenzo 18 3 4 0
Mitchell Robinson S 29 0 15 1
Miles McBride 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 36 30 4 4
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 22 8 6
Jae Crowder 24 14 6 2
MarJon Beauchamp 13 13 2 2
Brook Lopez S 36 13 5 0
Khris Middleton S 21 12 9 4
Bobby Portis 17 4 2 0
Pat Connaughton 24 2 2 2
Malik Beasley S 22 0 3 3
Cameron Payne 12 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 18-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
15%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
14%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
4 Mitchell Robinson NY
10%
5 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
7 Julius Randle NY
9%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Quentin Grimes NY
7%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
51%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 23.5 9.5 3.2
2 Damian Lillard MIL 20.5 4.2 4.4
3 Jalen Brunson NY 20.3 4.0 4.5
4 Immanuel Quickley NY 17.6 3.8 3.5
5 Julius Randle NY 15.3 8.8 4.0
6 Malik Beasley MIL 10.9 3.1 2.0
7 Brook Lopez MIL 10.1 3.8 1.1
8 Mitchell Robinson NY 9.5 9.8 0.9
9 Jae Crowder MIL 8.9 3.9 2.0
10 Bobby Portis MIL 8.9 6.4 1.6
11 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.7 2.9 2.1
12 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 8.4 3.4 1.5
13 Quentin Grimes NY 8.0 2.0 1.6
14 Evan Fournier NY 7.8 2.1 0.7
15 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 7.6 4.8 1.7
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.1 4.1 1.9
17 Khris Middleton MIL 7.0 2.2 3.4
18 Josh Hart NY 6.9 5.0 1.8
19 Miles McBride NY 6.7 1.4 2.3
20 Cameron Payne MIL 5.5 1.3 1.8
21 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 5.0 2.4 0.6
22 Chris Livingston MIL 4.8 1.4 0.6
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.7 3.4 1.6
24 AJ Green MIL 4.5 1.5 0.9
25 DaQuan Jeffries NY 3.3 1.0 0.8
26 Robin Lopez MIL 3.0 2.0 0.9
27 Jericho Sims NY 2.8 3.6 1.0
28 Dylan Windler NY 2.4 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.