NBA games

CLE @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
116–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE26273429116
IND36341833121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (IND) / 9 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home IND
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 37 38 5 9
Evan Mobley S 36 14 10 5
Darius Garland S 32 14 0 6
Caris LeVert 30 13 5 4
Georges Niang 27 12 5 1
Jarrett Allen S 21 10 7 0
Max Strus S 28 10 1 0
Isaac Okoro 23 5 1 2
Dean Wade 3 0 0 0
Tristan Thompson 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 31 27 9 0
Bruce Brown S 37 19 7 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 18 2 13
Buddy Hield 30 14 5 2
Aaron Nesmith 27 13 5 0
Jalen Smith 17 13 5 2
Obi Toppin S 21 6 4 1
Andrew Nembhard 18 6 0 3
Bennedict Mathurin S 24 5 3 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 2-foot dunk (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
4 Darius Garland CLE
9%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
6 Obi Toppin IND
8%
7 Myles Turner IND
8%
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND
7%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 Bruce Brown IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
35%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
27%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.7 5.1 4.6
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.2 4.7 9.8
3 Caris LeVert CLE 18.6 3.9 5.0
4 Evan Mobley CLE 16.2 10.5 2.6
5 Max Strus CLE 13.4 5.6 3.7
6 Darius Garland CLE 13.2 2.5 3.1
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 12.9 3.6 2.2
8 Myles Turner IND 12.2 7.6 1.6
9 Isaac Okoro CLE 11.0 4.6 2.6
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.5 3.3 1.2
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.4 2.8 3.8
12 Buddy Hield IND 9.9 3.2 4.1
13 Bruce Brown IND 9.5 3.4 1.9
14 Obi Toppin IND 8.8 4.8 0.9
15 T.J. McConnell IND 8.6 2.9 4.7
16 Jalen Smith IND 7.9 5.8 0.6
17 Dean Wade CLE 7.2 3.8 1.3
18 Jarace Walker IND 6.8 4.3 1.6
19 Georges Niang CLE 6.7 3.6 1.4
20 Ben Sheppard IND 6.7 2.3 1.5
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.1 2.0 1.6
22 Jordan Nwora IND 4.9 1.6 1.0
23 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.4 3.9 0.6
24 Sam Merrill CLE 3.9 1.6 1.1
25 Damian Jones CLE 3.8 2.9 0.6
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.7 3.7 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.